Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 2.301434 2.447130 2.601468 2.777845 2.974717 3.188746 3.440443
2025-07-27 2.119469 2.324155 2.552548 2.828931 3.158022 3.542220 4.032238
2025-08-03 1.968434 2.201912 2.471486 2.810686 3.233530 3.754027 4.461526
2025-08-10 1.853963 2.105437 2.403518 2.790323 3.290842 3.935071 4.861260
2025-08-17 1.755934 2.018161 2.335600 2.758041 3.322044 4.076520 5.217224
2025-08-24 1.672826 1.942002 2.273686 2.724726 3.343637 4.200749 5.558805
2025-08-31 1.615915 1.894025 2.242636 2.726848 3.409719 4.389588 6.021276
2025-09-07 1.572000 1.859246 2.225192 2.743940 3.495403 4.612841 6.572468
2025-09-14 1.510153 1.797675 2.168273 2.701484 3.489425 4.693228 6.891712
2025-09-21 1.453128 1.739573 2.112585 2.656382 3.474454 4.755573 7.186182
2025-09-28 1.398289 1.681932 2.054527 2.603885 3.443234 4.786649 7.424895
2025-10-05 1.380422 1.672660 2.061737 2.645595 3.559801 5.075407 8.227851
2025-10-12 1.363717 1.664702 2.070935 2.691694 3.688969 5.405959 9.214905
2025-10-19 1.348024 1.657313 2.080307 2.738275 3.822778 5.763663 10.377585
2025-10-26 1.314078 1.623172 2.049612 2.720871 3.846695 5.916403 11.088953
2025-11-02 1.281846 1.590186 2.019025 2.701556 3.865147 6.059995 11.823905
2025-11-09 1.248403 1.554322 1.982700 2.670934 3.860863 6.156431 12.460910
2025-11-16 1.216643 1.519815 1.947006 2.639321 3.852111 6.242135 13.099399
2025-11-23 1.195851 1.500243 1.932630 2.641334 3.904442 6.465566 14.273272
2025-11-30 1.179959 1.487115 1.927243 2.657554 3.984122 6.761399 15.854088
2025-12-07 1.150304 1.453191 1.889169 2.617258 3.953120 6.798356 16.492061
2025-12-14 1.121395 1.419622 1.850601 2.574427 3.914336 6.812545 17.055729
2025-12-21 1.091986 1.384638 1.808872 2.524543 3.858677 6.780022 17.418091